Anatomy of a Box Office Heist: Why ‘Now You See Me 3’ Vanquished a Misfiring ‘Running Man’
In a stunning box office twist worthy of the Four Horsemen themselves, Lionsgate’s Now You See Me: Now You Don’t has pulled off the ultimate illusion, conjuring a massive $75.5 million global debut to steal the weekend crown. The real disappearing act, however, was the audience for Paramount’s big-budget actioner, The Running Man, which stumbled out of the gate with a shockingly soft $28.2 million worldwide. The result is more than a simple upset; it is a brutal lesson in audience demographics, a cautionary tale about the limits of newfound stardom, and a stark reminder that in Hollywood, a well-executed plan can beat brute force every time.
Heading into the weekend, all eyes were on The Running Man. It had the bigger budget, the acclaimed director in Edgar Wright, and Hollywood’s man of the moment, Glen Powell. Pundits had it pegged for a comfortable win. But they didn’t see the magic trick coming. Now You See Me 3 dazzled with a $21.3 million domestic opening, soaring past its initial projections. The real story, however, was its international appeal, pulling in an additional $54.2 million from 64 markets.
The secret to its success was not an illusion, but a masterful understanding of its audience. In a market often saturated with male-dominated action films, Now You See Me 3 tapped into a demographic that its rival completely ignored: women, who made up a commanding 54 percent of the domestic audience. By reuniting franchise favorites like Jesse Eisenberg and Woody Harrelson and cleverly introducing a new generation of magicians played by Justice Smith, Ariana Greenblatt, and Dominic Sessa, the film transformed a long-dormant property into a multi-generational event. Strong word-of-mouth, evidenced by a solid B+ CinemaScore and an 80 percent audience rating on Rotten Tomatoes, fanned the flames, proving that positive buzz can easily overcome lukewarm critical reviews.
On the other side of the battlefield lies the wreckage of The Running Man. The film’s $17 million domestic debut is not just a disappointment; it’s a categorical failure and the first significant box office miss for Glen Powell since his meteoric rise following hits like Top Gun: Maverick and Twisters. This stumble immediately ignites a difficult but necessary conversation in Hollywood about the nature of modern stardom. Is Powell a true leading man capable of opening a film on his name alone, or is he a phenomenal ensemble player who thrives as part of a larger machine? The decision to cast the famously charismatic actor as a grim, enraged action hero now seems like a fundamental miscalculation of his brand.
The strategic flaws in the film’s release are glaring. With a heavily male-skewing audience (64 percent), Paramount sent The Running Man into a direct firefight with Predator: Badlands, a certified hit that was already dominating the exact same demographic. It was a strategic blunder of the highest order, splitting its target audience and ensuring neither film could reach its full potential. Ironically, audience reception for The Running Man was perfectly respectable, mirroring the exit scores of its rival. This wasn’t a case of a bad movie being rejected; it was a case of a poorly positioned movie being overlooked.
Elsewhere at the box office, the story of established IP and smart counter-programming continued. 20th Century/Disney’s Predator: Badlands proved its staying power, crossing $136 million globally. Meanwhile, sleeper hits like Regretting You and horror holdover Black Phone 2 demonstrated that there is still room for well-executed, mid-budget films to find their audience. The weekend also saw a major milestone for Paul Thomas Anderson’s awards contender, One Battle After Another, which gracefully crossed the $200 million mark worldwide, proving that prestige cinema can still achieve commercial success.
Ultimately, this weekend was a tale of two vastly different strategies. Now You See Me 3 understood its identity, catered to a broad and underserved audience, and executed a flawless plan. The Running Man misread the market, miscast its star for the role, and was cannibalized by a direct competitor. The result is a weekend that studio executives will be studying for months to come—a perfect case study in how the magic of smart strategy can make even the biggest muscles in Hollywood completely disappear.
